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2009 oil price forecast

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Bob Peters

Beginner

Posts: 15

1

Thursday, October 2nd 2008, 4:31pm

2009 oil price forecast

1. From the Wall Street Journal : <link removed>

Merrill Lynch was the latest to cut its 2009 global growth forecast, with the bank now expecting oil demand to grow by 400,000 barrels a day, down from an earlier prediction of 783,000 barrels a day. Analyst Francisco Blanch cut his 2009 price forecast to $90 a barrel from $107.

2. From Bloomberg : <link removed>

Crude-oil prices may fall as low as $50 a barrel next year, about half current levels, in the ``unlikely'' event of a global recession, weighing on shares of petroleum producers, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.

Such a scenario, where global growth in Gross Domestic Product falls to 1.5 percent, isn't the base-case forecast, the bank said today in a report. Merrill cut its 2009 average price estimatefor West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark oil grade, by 16 percent to $90, citing falling demand and the start of new fields in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

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For me, it is good to read, digest and watch. Still so much uncertainty about the bailout exit which will impact the consumption.

Barth

Beginner

Posts: 19

2

Saturday, October 4th 2008, 4:34am

Oil investors have moved out?

Dear Bob,

Looks like all the investors who had moved into the oil market and had caused the super high oil prices have moved out.
Combined with the Financial crisis and the resulting lesser oil consumption(predicted) will cause a drop further.

Will it be too much optimism if we hope that the oil prices fall below $80? :thumbup:

Orzuri

Beginner

Posts: 11

3

Friday, October 10th 2008, 4:14pm

How long will the party last?

Yes. The prices have dropped below $80. It is official.

But the normal consumers have other woes. No prizes for guessing... the banks, stock market, financial crisis.. whatever.

But being in the oil industry, this drop in price is going to affect the rig builders, exploration, advancement of technology. The party begins for some and ends for some. :whistling:

Bob Peters

Beginner

Posts: 15

4

Wednesday, October 15th 2008, 6:44pm

ok guys, enough break. Look at the oil price again

Everybody went away for a break. We could not help it. We were busy - watching the roller coaster at Wall Street and the other exchanges.

It has not cooled off. The bumpy ride is on. We are getting used to this, I think. At least, I am.

Looking at oil again...lowest in 13 months. Below USD 71. Happy consumers? No. The recession fear is still on.

Taking one week at a time. :(

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