Oil & Gas Forums - Worldoils

Why the oil prices will not rise too much than the present level of USD 65 :
Weak industrial production and many industries suffering
Shrinking World Trade
Reduced demand
High unemployment
Low investor confidence
Controlled/reduced bank lending
OPEC is maintaining the output

Why the oil prices will not fall too much than the present level of USD 65 :
The oil inventories are now at a sustainable level
Rising stock market

Agree. But there are the two basic factors - supply and demand.

I am waiting for a few more weeks to see if the world consumption is actually coming back on track or not. I think it is a bit too early to predict anything about the recovery of the economy.

Could anyone pass some available authentic information?

Thanks for the poll. I will be watching this.

I can say one thing.... we shall not be seeing $50 for a long time ahead. Maybe never.
IMHO

If the oil price does cross $100 and up again..the chances that it will drop to 60 and below may also be doubtful.
No theories here. Just a thought based on common sense, hoping the world has beccome wiser with less of sub primes etc

I am looking for some expert opinions from all of you here.

I feel that if Obama does a good thrust and facailitates alternative fuels research and supports clean fuels cars etc, the oil prices may not reach very high in the long run. The problem is that a Good alternative solution is still quite a way off...if there is one of course.

Any comments?

Oil prices are heading down toward the $65-a-barrel mark as negative sentiment from last week's poor consumer confidence data dampened traders' mood to invest in equities across the globe.



The International Energy Agency has already slashed its global oil demand forecast, following consistent contractions in gross domestic product of the economies.

Economists are projecting oil demand across the world to rebound in 2010 and think it could rise by almost 1 percent on an annual basis over the following three years.

But as of now, the confidence seems very low.

Please see these :

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125256979351998805.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-oil…ing-back-2009-9

It just says that nobody can really predict. Remember the oil price rise of 2008. Can any theory hold ground on that oil spike. Could it have been predicted?
Blame it on the speculators. Many of them lost money. Looks like they are not speculating anymore with the same confidence.

Can we add a "speculation" parameter in the forecasting? Anyone can answer?

This is an extract from http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/10/06…ove-80-in-2010/

Energy/oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens wants those investors who are expecting oil's price to drop amid an oil supply glut to know they are likely to be on the wrong side of history, and fairly soon.

Pickens Tuesday reiterated his forecast that oil prices will pass $75 per barrel before the end of 2009, and move considerably higher in 2010, CNBC reported.

"You'll see $85-$90 before the year ends," he said, CNBC reported. Pickens added that he wouldn't be surprised if oil prices topped $100, and added that he expects oil's price to average $80 per barrel next year. Oil traded Tuesday at mid-day up $1.45 to $71.73 per barrel.

Pickens favors increased use of renewable resources, including wind and solar, and, U.S.-based natural gas, in order to decrease U.S. imports of oil and to enhance foreign policy flexibility, among other benefits.

Energy Analysis: Pickens, among others, argues that ramping GDP growth in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, will contribute to the resumption of global oil demand increases in 2010. The prospect of that increased emerging market demand, along with the weak dollar, and talk that certain economic powers (China, France, Brazil, Russia) are becoming increasingly concerned about a further decline in the dollar, due to large U.S. budget deficits, has kept oil's price high, despite the U.S./global recessions and slack demand conditions.

Assuming global economic growth accelerates to 5 percent in two years, it's easy to see how oil's price could hit Boone's 2010 forecast. But even short-term, prices could advance substantially: factor-in a cold U.S. winter and/or above-trend U.S. GDP growth with a return to net monthly job gains (more drivers on U.S. roads), and a plausible argument can be made for an oil price above $80 in 2009.

On Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration released its monthly short-term energy outlook, forecasting higher oil and fuel prices for the coming year than previously thought.

According to the report, benchmark US crude oil will cost an average of $78.13 a barrel in 2010, up from a previous estimate of $72.42 a barrel. Moreover, the new estimate marks a 26% increase over the expected average price for 2009, which was $62 per barrel. The EIA predicts that by December 2010, oil prices could hit $81 a barrel, “assuming US and world economic conditions continue to improve.”

In addition, the EIA speculates that residential heating oil prices will average $2.80 a gallon, up 17 cents from the previous winter. Oil consumers will likely recall the volatility with which oil prices fluctuated last year; when the price of oil hit $4 per gallon in September, many customers agreed to price-lock contracts, fearing that prices would climb further as winter approached. As it happened, oil prices fell later in the year, and an untold number of customers paid much more for heating oil than they would have, had they not singed price-lock contracts.

The EIA also raised its forecast for the final quarter of 2009, as oil prices have risen to $80 a barrel in recent weeks, well above earlier predictions. The new forecast pegs oil at an average of $77.41 a barrel, with gasoline at $2.66 a gallon and diesel at $2.79 a gallon.

This is an extract from http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/eia-raise…oil-prices1111/

Hello all the fans out there.

I have been analysing the oil price forecast of year ending 2009 which is above.

40% of the votes so far said that the crude oil price would be between $76 & $85
23% of the votes so far said that the crude oil price would be between $66 & $75

The year has not ended yet and it is now USD 74.
OPEC is very happy. They muy not change anything at the Angola summit.

I did expect some change after the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit. But did not see anything significant.

I would safey assume that we may be at USD 76 at the end of the year.

Any comments?