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1

Wednesday, October 7th 2009, 7:08pm

Oil Price Forecast 2010 - Crude Oil Forecast 2010 - What will the Crude Oil prices be in June 2010?

Poll

What will the Crude oil Prices be on 30th of June 2010?

1%

Less than $35 (6)

1%

Between $35 and $45 (6)

1%

Between $45 and $55 (7)

3%

Between $55 and $65 (25)

14%

Between $65 and $75 (111)

27%

Between $75 and $85 (221)

27%

Between $85 and $95 (221)

16%

Between $95 and $105 (131)

4%

Between $105 and $115 (29)

3%

Between $115 and $125 (25)

5%

Over $125 (37)

A total of 819 Votes have been submitted.
The chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus. This means that the oil demand may fall again.

There are many pundits in the market, some of whom predict BOOM and some of who predict GLOOM.

Whom do we trust now? I have seen many people taking opinions from others at every opportunity of a casual talk. Does this help? Are the pundits accurate?

We think that, at this stage of uncertainty, it is best to be a bit pessimistic.

Go ahead and guess the price of Crude Oil on 30th of June 2010.

This post has been edited 6 times, last edit by "Barth" (Apr 13th 2010, 10:01pm)


2

Thursday, October 15th 2009, 6:20pm

Crude Oil Price Rise In 2010?

Crude oil price should go up in 2010 in line with a better economic outlook, spurring the award of new oil and gas projects, according to OSK Research.

The research firm said that its forecasts for crude oil price are US$60 to US$70 per barrel for this year and US$70 to US$80 per barrel for 2010.

In May, there was this article : http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapita…rude-forecasts/
It said "Seeing a slower recovery in global economic growth–the euro zone reported a record contraction–and oil consumption than a month ago, the analysts on average cut their 2010 price forecasts for the U.S. benchmark, WTI, to $62 a barrel. That’s an 11% reduction from an average price of $70 a barrel projected just last month."

I wish to make a guess too, but I will watch till the end of the year to see the mail factor : Is the global economy recivering or not?? ?(

3

Friday, October 30th 2009, 10:14am

World Bank sees oil at $63 a barrel in 2010

This is an extract from AFP news at http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/art…_eObfBGmJgq7HEg



ISTANBUL — Oil prices are expected to average 63 dollars in 2010, after 55.5 dollars in 2009, the World Bank said in a report on the Middle East and North Africa released in Istanbul on Saturday.


Those prices are "sufficient to avoid a major crisis in oil-producing countries, but much lower than the boom of 2008," said the "Economic Development and Prospects" report.


The World Bank said that oil prices in 2009 were unlikely to be significantly affected by the factors that had contributed to high prices before mid-2008.

"Global demand is likely to remain low," said the report, released in the run-up to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings in the Turkish financial capital.


The IMF did not provide oil price projections for 2010 in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook report, published Thursday.

According to its WEO report, global oil demand is expected to rise to 85.7 million barrels per day in 2010 from 84.4 mbpd in 2009, but still be below the 2008 level of 86.3 mbpd.


Oil prices dropped below 70 dollars a barrel Friday after the US government reported worse than expected unemployment data that hammered economic recovery hopes for the world's largest energy-consuming nation.

4

Friday, October 30th 2009, 10:17am

Iran sees rise in oil prices for 2010

This is also an interestimng piece from Presstv at http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=109…ctionid=3510213



Iran's OPEC governor predicts a rise in oil prices for next year due to rising signs of recovery in the global economies.

"There are hopes of likely recovery in oil market regarding demand capacity and the return of the global economy to the normal condition," Mohammad-Ali Khatibi told the Oil Ministry web site SHANA.

Khatibi said a weak US currency was the main reason behind the current rise in oil prices as the dollar hit a 14-month low against a basket of currencies last week.

"The recent oil prices show a better economic condition compared with the past and we should be confident that the 70 to 80 dollars prices will not have negative effects on the economic recovery," he said.

Khatibi noted that 'oil prices could increase from the current levels' and an unexpected cold spell in the United States might push up the prices.

The comments came as US crude for December delivery fell 12 cents to $79.43 a barrel while, London Brent oil was down 17 cents at $77.75 on Wednesday.

Oil prices increased about 78 percent this year but it is still around 46 percent below a record high of $147 a barrel in July 2008.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which in September agreed to maintain output quotas at 24.845 million barrels per day, will hold its next meeting in Luanda, Angola, on December 22.

There are speculations in the market that the 12-nation organization might raise output only if global oil stocks fall fast. :thumbsup:

5

Friday, October 30th 2009, 10:20am

British analysts expect decrease in oil prices

Analysts of one of UK's leading consulting firms for economic research Capital Economics expect next fall in oil prices soon.


Oil prices on world markets continue to grow on the backdrop of expectations for reviving the global economy. Presently, the price remains well below the record level achieved in 2008.


"We continue to consider that prices will fall again in 2010 on the backdrop of frustration regarding the recovery of world economy," the British analysts said. Analysts expect global economic growth at 3.7 percent in 2010 and 3.2 percent in 2011.

Given the slight recovery in world oil demand, in 2010 the oil price (North Sea Brent) will fall to $50 per barrel, analysts said. In 2011, the average oil price will remain at the same level.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the first half of 2009 the world oil demand fell by 3.2 million barrels per day. In this current quarter, the EIA expects first growth in demand for the last five quarters.

Analysts of Capital Economics expect the average price for Brent crude oil to be $ 70 dollars per barrel.


Currently, Brent is traded within a $77 per barrel. As for trades on Oct. 26 price for the December contract for Brent fell by $1.66 to $77.26 per barrel at the London Stock Exchange.


The recent increase in oil prices was caused by a weakening of U.S. dollar. Thus, the partial restoration of the U.S. currency's positions will be a lowering factor for oil prices, the British analysts believe.


The position of the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen on international exchanges in the third consecutive day compared to the Asian currencies. Yesterday, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to yen was 92.08 yen compared to 92.19 yen the previous day. The exchange rate of the U.A dollar to the European currency was € 1.4886.



Source for the above : http://en.trend.az/capital/pengineering/1567506.html

6

Tuesday, November 24th 2009, 1:02pm

Oman forecasts 2010 oil price

Oman expects oil prices to range between $70 and $80 a barrel in 2010, some 40% to 60% more than the $50 estimate the country is using for to calculate its budget, Oman's national economy minister said on 24th Nov 2009.

7

Thursday, November 26th 2009, 10:55am

World Bank forecasts 2010 oil price of $75.29/bbl

MOSCOW: The World Bank forecast an average oil price of $75.29 per barrel in 2010 in a presentation released on Tuesday, saying it did not expect a
return next year to price levels seen before the economic crisis.



The bank did not specify the type of oil to which it was referring in the presentation on the Russian economy.

US crude prices fell on Tuesday to $79 a barrel as a late-season hurricane subsided in the Gulf of Mexico and traders awaited key US inventory data.



This is an extract from http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news…how/5215544.cms

8

Monday, December 7th 2009, 7:03pm

Crude oil price forecast so far.

In the participation so far in predicting the prices of Crude oil on the 30th of June 2010, we have the following results :

21% between $65 & $75

19% between $75 & $85

19% between $96 & $105

15% between $85 & $95

Is this a better way ofr predicting than lengthy analysis? I do not know. many people do not know.

But what can be observed is that the predictions by various analysts keep changing with time. As we have heard before - we are on our own and we should make our own predictions. In today's world one thing is sure - things change very fast. So do the oil prices and the factors that influence the oil prices.

9

Sunday, December 13th 2009, 6:13pm

Societe Generale hikes oil outlook

Herald News ServicesDecember 12, 2009

Societe Generale SA raised its average crude oil price forecast for next year in New York by 7.6 per cent to $88.75 US a barrel, on expectations that fuel demand will grow as the economy improves.

The bank boosted its previous forecast for the year by $6.25 a barrel from $82.50. Oil has averaged $61.38 a barrel so far this year on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped 7.4 per cent to $69.87 a barrel this week, in the biggest decline since September.

"We expect oil demand to recover in 2010, growing by 1.4 million barrels a day over the year, assuming a modest global economic recovery of 3.5 per cent," said Mike Wittner, Londonbased head of oil research, in the bank's commodities outlook for the first quarter of 2010. "OPEC will be in the driver's seat and will continue to carefully restrain output."

The bank forecast West Texas Intermediate crude oil price will average $92.50 in the third and fourth quarters of next year.

This is an extract from : http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/…3721/story.html

10

Sunday, December 13th 2009, 6:19pm

Goldman Sachs Keeps 2010 Crude Price Prediction at $90 a Barrel

This is an extract from http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/goldman-sachs-2010-crude-price-prediction-90-barrel1204/

According to Reuters on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs has kept its prediction for 2010 oil prices but has upped its forecast for 2011. And neither bodes well for heating oil consumers.

Goldman Sachs says that one barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil, which is used as the benchmark price for crude, will cost $90 in 2010, up from the $70 to $80 price range crude oil has been selling at for the past few months. And in 2011, due to rising demand from emerging countries such as China, India and Brazil, Goldman says that oil will reach $110 per barrel.

11

Sunday, December 20th 2009, 5:55pm

Crude oil Forecast

I read the Goldman Sachs news whioch said :
Goldman Sachs says that one barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil, which is used as the benchmark price for crude, will cost $90 in 2010, up from the $70 to $80 price range crude oil has been selling at for the past few months.

Which month are they talking about? Are they talking of any particular month or average price for the year? ?(

12

Sunday, December 20th 2009, 6:10pm

Oil price to average $76.40 a barrel in 2010

This is an extract from : http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNe…-44839220091218

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S crude oil is expected to rise to an average of $76.40 a barrel in 2010, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as global economic recovery solidifies and the demand for fuel begins to soak up available supply.

The poll of 27 analysts showed a rising consensus forecast for the eighth consecutive month. In April of this year, the average forecast for 2010 was $65.95 a barrel.

"We are now turning to a phase in which focus could shift from common factors - such as recovery in global demand - to specific factors such as capacity, demand and inventories for individual commodities," said Christine Tuxen at Danske Markets.

"We continue to see oil testing $90 on a three-month horizon, and still see WTI averaging $83 next year," she said, using the acronym for West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark oil traded in the world's largest energy consumer.

U.S. crude is expected to average $74.90 in the fourth quarter of 2009, up from $73.70 in the last poll.

U.S. crude prices rose as high as $82 in October, retracing in November to below $70 on a strengthening dollar and excessive global supply.

Analysts in the latest poll said U.S. crude would average $63.10 a barrel for 2009 as a whole, compared to a forecast of $60.80 in November.

More at http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNe…lBrandChannel=0

13

Sunday, March 14th 2010, 8:20pm

IEA Raises 2010 Oil-Demand Forecast

By SPENCER SWARTZ

LONDON—The International Energy Agency Friday said it expects world oil demand in 2010 to resume trend growth seen earlier this decade, a bullish call, as economic activity advances in the second half of the year.

World crude consumption this year is expected to clock growth of 1.8%, or 1.6 million barrels a day, with all of that increase coming from emerging markets like China, the Paris-based agency, said in its monthly oil market report.

"We are seeing demand growth back on trend level that we saw earlier this decade," said David Fyfe, who edits the IEA report. The forecast represents a slight upward revision from January of 70,000 barrels a day.

The agency, an energy watchdog for big consuming nations like the U.S., said world oil demand started growing again in the fourth quarter after dropping five straight quarters.

The IEA has been among the more bullish forecasters in the oil market. Other analysts think issues like high U.S. unemployment, weak lending and economic problems in Europe will thwart consumer activity, all of which will retard global oil demand growth to just around half the rate the IEA is currently projecting.

Crude prices Friday in New York traded up around 15 cents at $82.25 a barrel at 0840 GMT, as dealers mull whether prices can retest a 15-month high of $83.95 a barrel hit last month on optimism about economic recovery.

Write to Spencer Swartz at spencer.swartz@dowjones.com

This piece is an extract from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424…=googlenews_wsj

14

Tuesday, March 30th 2010, 11:51pm

Opec looks to $70-$80 range in oil prices

Oil prices could stay within the $70-$80 a barrel range for 10 years, the Opec oil cartel said yesterday, arguing that lower prices would deter investment in new energy supply but higher prices would hamper economic growth.

Opec cautioned that its assumptions did not reflect whether such a price development was likely or desirable. But by assuming the $70-$80 a barrel range, the group appears to be trying to anchor oil market expectations around $75, a price level which Saudi Arabia, Opec's de facto leader, describes as "fair".

While watching various analysts predict the oil prices at the end of the year is interesting, The investors seem to be exercising a lot of caution still.
Can be seen from the market??

15

Sunday, April 4th 2010, 9:56pm

Oil price surges to 17-month high

Oil prices rose to 17-month highs on Thursday on further signs that a global economic recovery would boost consumption.

In New York the price of a barrel of light sweet crude for delivery in May rose over a dollar to 84.87 by the end of trade on Thursday, up from 83.76 the day before.

During trade the price briefly rose above 85 dollars, the highest level since October 9, 2008.

Brent North Sea crude for May also hit a similar high at 84.04 dollars, before pulling back slightly to 83.96, up 1.26 dollars.

"Decent data around the globe have offered a positive backdrop," said analysts at Sucden Financial Research in a note to clients.

Now, with the Peak Oil discussions commencing once again in UK and the rest of the world, will there be another recession coming which will be worse that the Sub-Prime recession?

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16

Saturday, April 17th 2010, 9:19pm

OPEC will step in if oil price hits 100 dollars: Kuwait

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah al-Sabah said on Thursday that OPEC will step in to alter output if crude prices top 100 dollars a barrel.
"If prices of oil go above 100 (dollars), then OPEC will meet to take a decision on production levels," in a bid to boost supplies, the Kuwaiti minister told reporters outside parliament.

But Sheikh Ahmad stressed that any decision will greatly depend on prevailing "market situations and supply and demand."

Above is an extract from AFP news.

My question : Will OPEC really try to control the oil price if it touches $100?

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